Gator Nation

Gator Nation

Thursday, June 20, 2019

Swim Recon: NVSL Division 3 Outlook 2019

In case you haven't noticed, the Mount Vernon Gator Swim Team has become the Division 3 stalwarts over the past decade. Divisional seeding in the NVSL is a promotion/relegation system similar to soccer leagues around most of the world. Win a lot of meets, and your team normally moves up (promotes). Lose too many, and you''ll bump down a division or two (relegate). The general rule of thumb tends to be that 5 wins bumps you up two divisions, while 4 wins bumps you up one. Zero wins will drop you two and 1 win will drop you down one. The rules aren't hard and fast as the divisional seeding committee takes many other factors into consideration. In fact, our division this year has a 4-1 team from last season and a 1-4 team that both remained in the division- neither getting moved up or down (more on that later).

Anyway, back to the Gators. Those Division 3 stalwarts, as I said. This season, we have once again been placed in Division 3 following our 3-2 record in the division last year. There's a couple consistent patterns emerging here: (1) being in D3, and (2) finishing 3-2. This makes our third year in a row and seventh out of the last nine that we've competed in Division 3. The other two "non-Div3" years in this span were a stint in Division 4 back in 2012 and a brief testing of the waters in Division 2 back in 2016. That's pretty consistent performance at a very high level of swimming for the team. And as I alluded to, we've finished with a team record of 3-2 in 4 out of the past 5 years in Div 3. In fact, we've only finished with less than 3 wins twice in the last decade: in 2011, which was our first foray into D3 (we lacked a little confidence the first time up here) and in 2016 when we tested out lofty heights of D2.

The 2018 season found us to be the only team returning to Division 3 after the 2017 campaign, with three of the teams moving up and the other two moving down. So, every opponent we faced in 2018 was somewhat of a "fresh face." This year, it is just about as polar opposite from that as we can get (I'm not exactly sure what the polar opposite of "fresh face" is.... but it probably isn't great, so I'll leave it unsaid). There are four teams returning from last year's Division 3 to battle it out again: MVP, High Point Pool, Hunter Mill, and Donaldson Run. We lost the opening meet last year to High Point Pool in what turned out to be our largest margin of defeat for the season (185-235). We were victorious in two extremely close meets against Hunter Mill (218-202) and Donaldson Run (215-205). Rounding out the division this year, we will be joined by two teams promoting up from Division 4: Crosspointe (who finished at 5-0 last year) and Vienna Woods (4-1).

"A" Meet Scoring Review: I referenced the scores of last year's meets above. It probably wouldn't hurt to give a quick refresher (or introduction) to A Meet scoring. The general idea is that six swimmers (3 per team) are entered in each race for the individual events (Free, Back, Breast, and Butterfly), and the top-3 earn points: 5 for first, 3 for second, and 1 for third. Relays are a little different. Each team puts four swimmers into the relays for some winner-take-all races: 5 points to the victors, and none for the other team. All in all, there are 420 points available in each meet (360 for individual races and 60 for relays). Some simple math tells us that a minimum of 210.5 points are needed for a team victory. Anytime you see both teams scoring over 200, you know that it is very close and the final couple of relays are the deciding races.

So, what do we expect this year? Lots of close matchups with both teams scoring over 200 points... anybody can win any of these things. If all that history and consistency I mentioned above is any indication, we'll probably end up 3-2 and back in D3 next year.... but we just as likely could be 5-0 (or 0-5). These six teams are really that well matched up and the results of each meet will be determined by who brings it most often on "any given Saturday morning" over the next 5 weeks. Be prepared for dramatic finishes coming down to the wire all summer long.

Team-by-Team Outlook and Schedule

June 22nd vs Crosspoint Cruisers (Away)
It's been a while since we've matched up against the Cruisers.  In fact the only time in recent history was that ill-fated 2011 season when MVP first swam in D3. The Cruisers (and everyone else) beat us that season by a pretty wide margin. But that was when it all started to change for both teams as MVP went down to D4 in 2012, went undefeated, and hasn't been back below D3 since. The Cruisers meanwhile have been experiencing some slightly leaner years and been in D4 and D5 during that time. They finished undefeated last year in D4 and now make their first appearance back in D3 since 2012. And going against the Cruisers... I think all the Gators families with classic cars should saddle up for the caravan and intimidate them with our cruising skills. You know who you are. I call Shotgun!

June 29th vs Donaldson Run Thunderbolts (Home)
Our first home meet of the season is against our most familiar (at least recently) opponent in the Donaldson Run Thunderbolts. We've been in the same division as the Thunderbolts six times out of the last nine years... it feels like we see these guys as often as we see Waynewood and RSG... okay, maybe not quite that much, but it has been a lot!  The Thunderbolts finished 1-4 in D3 last season, which would often result in a relegation to D4... but they are a strong team, and all of their meets were close, so the seeding committee kept them up (and rightly so). Last year, we successfully won two of the last three relays for the victory, narrowly avoiding a tie. And while they are coming to the Swamp this year, we will still be making the annual trek to their "stadium seating" venue for Divisional Relays in July.

July 6th vs Vienna Woods (Away)
Then comes the perilous "July 4th weekend meet" when teams live or die based on vacation plans (swim team tip: make your plans for August!). The team that brings the most A team swimmers tends to win. We'll be traveling out to the "Woods" for this one, hopefully with a full squad. I'm pretty sure "the Woods" got their team name from the famous swimmer Natalie Wood, so I like our chances.... insert dad joke groan here. Google it if you don't get it. Anywho... VW finished second in D4 last year with a 4-1 record with their only loss coming to Crossepointe. The last time we tangled with the Woods was in 2014 & 2015 when we split with them winning once each in those years.

July 13th vs Hunter Mill Sharks (Away)
On the road again... as we head out to Hunter Mill and the infamous "cold pool, " or at least that was the story back in 2016. This will be our 3rd year out of the last 4 going head-to-head with the Sharks. I always thought Sharks liked the water warm... but, who knows. Head games.

July 20th vs High Point Pool Hippos (Home)
This is going to be the big challenge (on paper). The NVSL intentionally schedules they two teams they think will be at the top for the final week of the season. (Yes, they think it'll be one of us two... but there are lots of things that can happen along the way, and those seeding predictions aren't necessarily highly regarded by the Vegas odds makers.) The Hippos dealt us our largest defeat last year. I actually fully anticipated them to move up to D2 based on their performance. They literally only missed out on going undefeated and winning the division by an amazing streak of eight straight relay wins that Hunt Valley was able to pull off in their dual meet last summer. (You can read about the dramatic matchup that decided D3 last year here.) But, the seeding committee put them in D3 again, which gives us a chance to avenge last year's defeat. I was a little surprised that they are coming to the Swamp again... normally we alternate locations with teams when we meet them in back-to-back years. Maybe the NVSL is giving us an advantage? A little home-cooking could play into our hand and hopefully push us over the top in what is sure to be a critical matchup. Admittedly, the Hippos were an unfamiliar team last year, and I took them a little lightly in the pre-season blog. But we Gators learn from our mistakes. This year, we'll be ready.

That's the A Meet outline. The full schedule of events for all the various meets is on the Gator website. Be sure to check the website and the blog often for all that good information you need to have a great season in the Swamp.

Welcome to 2019. Go Gators!

You know the deal. 


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