Seeding Prediction: Good News and Bad News

The dual meets for the 2017 summer season have come to an end. Our Mount Vernon Park Gators finished with a 3-2 record in Division 3, which means that we're going to be in Division 3 again next year. Or does it?

The conventional wisdom is that teams with 3-2 or 2-3 records stay in the same division the next year. And that's solid wisdom, based on good averages. NVSL seeding is not actually based on record alone, there is a more in depth analysis that takes place, but record is a good estimator. The average 5-0 team moves up two divisions (i.e. a 5-0 team in Division 8 will likely be in Division 6 the next year.) The average 4-1 team moves up one. At the other end, an 0-5 team goes down two, and a 1-4 team will normally go down one. The conventional wisdom, based on these averages, is absolutely correct. However, the thing about averages is there is always variance built into those numbers.

While most teams with a 5-0 record move up two divisions, some only move up one while a couple jump up three. And while almost every 4-1 team moves up one division, there are a small number who move up two. And to the relevant part for us.... while most 3-2 or 2-3 teams stay put, about 5 (out of 102) such teams move up or down every year. Last year, two 3-2's moved up while three 2-3's moved down. Even MVP moved from Division 7 in 2006 up to Division 6 in 2007 after finishing with a 3-2 record.

So, what does this all mean for MVP in 2018? It depends. One of the interesting factors that adds complexity is that three teams in Division 2 all finished 1-4 this year. Almost all 1-4 teams move down. Whether they moved down to Division 3 or 4 doesn't make any difference for our discussion, the important thing is that three teams are moving down, as opposed to the "normal" two teams which move down from most divisions. That extra vacancy needs to be filled.... and MVP will be a leading contender.

Langley finished 5-0 in our Division 3. There is a very good chance they will be moving all the way up to Division 1 next year. Or they may just move up to Division 2 if Wakefield Chapel is selected to remain in Div 1, despite their 0-5 record (that's what happened last year). Little Rocky Run (4-0-1 in Div 2) or Fairfax (3-0-2) could also move up, but I think Langley is the leading contender. Whichever team goes to Div 1 doesn't matter to us. The bottom line is that three of those four teams will be in Division 2. Hamlet will also remain in Div 2 with their 3-1-1 record. That leaves two openings in Division 2 with five contenders to fill the slot:

1. Mount Vernon Park, Div 3 Record of 3-2, 237 All Star Relay points
2. Dowden Terrace, Div 3 Record of 3-2, 198 All Star Relay points
3. Vienna Aquatic Club, Div 3 Record of 3-2, 186 All Star Relay points
4. Donaldson Run, Div 4 Record of 5-0, 241 All Star Relay points
5. High Point Pool, Div 5 Record of 5-0, 182 All Star Relay points

Any of those teams could reasonably expect to move up. As I said earlier, there is a formula that takes more into account than just records (but those are a big part).  Donaldson Run is probably a 90% lock to take one of the spots. A record of 5-0 in Div 4 normally warrants a jump to Div 2. Their solid performance at All Star Relays supports that move. So, that leaves four more teams, including MVP, to fill that last spot. One question the seeding committee will be looking at is whether High Point, with its 5-0 record, should move up three Divisions. That's a big jump, especially with the destination being all the way up at Div 2. I don't think the committee will move them that far, so High Point will probably end up in Division 3.

That would leave MVP, DT, and VAC as the final three remaining contenders for that final spot in Div 2. We all finished 3-2 this season. We all lost to Langley (MVP did have the closest score) and we all beat Dunn Loring and Lakevale Estates by similar margins. We split our "round robin" with each other as each of the three teams won one and lost one against the other two- so there is no clear leader emerging. No clear leader, until you look at MVP's superior performance at Divisional and All Star Relays. We were a strong second behind Langley at Divisional Relays and finished 11th overall at the NVSL All-Star Relays, while Dowden Terrace was a distant 12th and Vienna Aquatic was 16th.

This isn't the full analysis that NVSL uses, but it's a big part of it. It's probably too close to call at this point, but I think the odds are at least 50/50 that MVP moves up. Actually, the odds are probably even a little higher than that. I'd say 55% MVP, 20% Dowden Terrace, 15% High Point, and 5% Vienna Aquatic. The other 5% is that one of the three teams with 1-4 records in Div 2 stays put- unlikely, but there's a chance. If I was a betting man, my money would be on MVP.

So, take the news as you will. Some will call it "bad" news that the Gators may end up in a higher division next year. But, if it happens, its because the team swam so well this season that it belongs there. And that's good news. I remember back in 2012 after we had just finished 4-1 in Division 4. The consensus was that we were moving up and there was a lot of trepidation about going to Division 3, fed by lots of memories of an 0-5 season back in 2011. I heard quite a few people lamenting the move and hoping to remain in Division 4. We did move up, and since then we've been exclusively in Division 2 or 3 and have had a combined record of 14-11. These Gators belong at the Division 2/3 level. Time to get used to it. For what it's worth, based on a time comparison, we'd most likely have been 3-2 in Div 2 this year also.

So, on the record, I'm going with Wakefield Chapel, Little Rocky Run, Fairfax, Hamlet, Donaldson Run, and MVP as next year's Division 2. To be honest, I'm more confident about MVP moving up than I am about Wakefield Chapel moving down to make way for Langley in Div 1. Those two could flip at the top, but I'm sticking with my prediction. I think the seeding committee will give Wakefield Chapel a break since they've been the 0-5 punching bag in Div 1 for the last two years now. We'll see. Check back in late February 2018 after the seeding meeting to get the actual results.

Go Gators!