Gator Swimmer of the Week (#2) - The Outlier

In statistics, an outlier is a data point or observation that is away from all of the others. This is normally attributed to one of two things, an error in observation or an actual difference in the data due to particular reasons. A good example of observation error happens all the time with timers at swim meets. If two of the times are close and accurate and the third is way off, because the timer started late or finished poorly, etc, then the poor time is thrown out and the other two times are used. The important thing to try to understand before throwing out an outlier, is was the observation made in error, or was there just variance in the observations taken? Given the previous example, you could come to another conclusion- that the first two times were both flawed, and the "outlier" was the actual correct time. This is why it is important for the observers in any scenario to discuss data that is outside of the expected results to determine whether it should be included or not. Statistics can be complicated. (And yes, there is a reason for the saying, "There are three kinds of lies: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.")

So, when this week's Gator Swimmer of the Week kept winning races going away in the face of otherwise dominant competition, the observers needed to do some checking. Were there observation errors? Was he swimming in the right age group, or was he somehow mistakenly swimming in a younger group? Was he wearing fins or one of those top secret suits that all the Olympians used in China? Were his relatives, friends, or fan club members somehow infiltrating the timer corps and putting up false data in his lane when he swam? Was the water somehow thinner in his lane? Careful reflection was necessary, and after close study and discussion, we came to the final conclusion that the numbers were valid. The outlier data produced were not caused by observational error, but rather caused by AWESOME swimming. So, join me in congratulating our Gator Swimmer of the Week, 8 & under swimmer extraordinaire, Liam Fore.

Why all the hubbub about outliers? Well, the Lee-Graham 8 and under boys were crushing in every event this week, except the ones Liam was in. In fact, Liam truly carried the load for the Little Gators this week by personally bringing home 10 out of the 13 points scored by his age group.

In his first race, he hit a personal best of 18.34 seconds in the Free to beat his L-G competitions by 1.5 and 2 seconds respectively. That time is also the 2nd fastest in Division 3 so far this year, and only 0.1 seconds off the Divisional lead. Then, showing similar dominance in the Fly, he uncorked a 20.98 (which is the 3rd fastest time in D3, trailing by only .02 seconds).

Liam's swims are on track for big time results at Divisionals and All-Stars this year. Keep up the hard work and outlier swims, Liam. Congrats and Go Gators!